Governed machine learning with 18 human checkpoints builds a CKD screening model at AUROC 0.7479

PreprintJMIR Preprints 2026 · 1 min read
AUROC · CKD screening in type 2 diabetes
0.7479
± 0.0013 across five random seeds; the previously deployed model was near chance (≈0.58)
Human-in-the-loop pause-points
18
Plus a mandatory calibration slope gate of 0.85–1.15
Patients in the retrospective evaluation
>53,000
Four health institutions

JMIR preprint: Hippocrates adds leakage gates, a calibration gate and 18 human pause-points to clinical screening model development.

This methodological study describes Hippocrates, a governed AutoML methodology for building tabular screening models from electronic health records in Colombian and Latin American health systems. It splits development into 13 phases, from data ingestion and mandatory leakage gates to isotonic calibration, threshold selection, subgroup assessment and TRIPOD+AI documentation. A calibration slope gate of 0.85–1.15 must be passed before a model is eligible for deployment, 18 human pause-points stop automation at decisions such as target definition and deployment scope, and every decision goes into an append-only audit log. The methodology runs as reusable skill files executed by a large language model agent, and was tested on six synthetic edge-case datasets.

Across five real-world sessions covering CKD screening, COPD screening and workforce retention, it produced calibrated models with complete governance trails. In a retrospective evaluation across four institutions (more than 53,000 patients), the new CKD model consistently improved on a previously deployed model with near-chance discrimination (AUROC about 0.58) and a calibration slope of 0.04; across five random seeds it reached an AUROC of 0.7479 ± 0.0013, with inter-operator variability (about 0.029 AUROC) as the main source of variation. It also corrected miscalibration in COPD screening and caught temporal leakage in the workforce session. The work is a preprint not yet peer reviewed, and the authors call for prospective studies of reproducibility and clinical utility.

Results at a glance

The headline numbers from the paper, in plain language.

MetricValueWhat it means
AUROC · CKD screening in type 2 diabetes0.7479± 0.0013 across five random seeds; the previously deployed model was near chance (≈0.58)
Human-in-the-loop pause-points18Plus a mandatory calibration slope gate of 0.85–1.15
Patients in the retrospective evaluation>53,000Four health institutions

How to cite

Katherine Monsalve, Laura V. Bellon-Padilla, Jose Zea, Natalia Castaño-Villegas, Laura Velásquez. A Governed Machine Learning Methodology for Clinical Screening in Latin American Health Systems: Development and Retrospective Evaluation. JMIR Preprints. 2026. https://doi.org/10.2196/preprints.102826

@article{monsalve2026governed,
  title     = {{A Governed Machine Learning Methodology for Clinical Screening in Latin American Health Systems: Development and Retrospective Evaluation}},
  author    = {Katherine Monsalve and Laura V. Bellon-Padilla and Jose Zea and Natalia Castaño-Villegas and Laura Velásquez},
  journal   = {JMIR Preprints},
  year      = {2026},
  doi       = {10.2196/preprints.102826},
  url       = {https://preprints.jmir.org/preprint/102826},
  note      = {Preprint}
}

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