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Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD): Risk Assessment Tool

Detect CKD risk from clinical variables and prioritize patients for enhaced care and cost reduction.

Problem

The median prevalence of CKD in LatinAmerica is higher than the global average (10.5% vs. 9.5%).

CKD ranks among the top 10 causes of deathworldwide. In 2017, CKD-related deaths reached 1.2 million, comparable to roadtraffic fatalities, and are projected to rise to 2.2 million by 2040 [1].

Why it matters

  • 9 out of 10 adults with CKD are unaware of their condition, and medical costs can increase fivefold in advanced stages.
  • 25% of CKD patients with diabetes progress to severe stages within two years, and 660,000 people face total kidney failure.
  • In 2021, 4,518 incident individuals with stage 5 CKD were reported, and aprevalence of 43,327 cases is reported, with the highest frequency of casesconcentrated in Bogotá and the central region. 43% of cases are documented in women and 57% in men. The mortality rate was calculated at 14.55 per-100,000 inhabitants, being the highest in recent years [2].

Solution

Low-cost Screening Models: Prevent CKD progression to the point of requiring renalreplacement therapies by implementing early detection methods.

Patient Classification: Facilitate the classification of patients within care pathwaysto ensure close monitoring, aligning with high-cost account goals [3].

Discover more and interact with our AI!

Datasources

 The model's synthetic datasetincludes health variables such as blood glucose levels, blood pressurereadings, age, and other key indicators of kidney health. Studies from the USRDS (1) and the NIH NIDDK (3) helped shape the variables used in the model to reflect real-world clinical scenarios, improving its predictive reliability for CKD.

Citations

  1. Obrador, G. T., Álvarez-Estévez, G., Bellorin-Font, E.,     Bonanno-Hidalgo, C., Clavero, R., Correa-Rotter, R., Dina-Batle, E.,     Morales, L., Orozco, R., Ortiz, F., Rosa-Diez, G., Sánchez-Polo, V., Solá,     L., Vázquez, L. C., Villavicencio, V., & Rico-Fontalvo, J.     (2024). Consensus Document on New Therapies to Delay the     Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease with an Emphasis on iSGLT-2:     Implications for Latin America. Nefrología Latinoamericana, 21(92). https://doi.org/10.24875/nefro.m24000037
  2. Martínez, W. D. A., & Valencia, L. F. (n.d.). Machine     Learning Models for the Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease Progression. Edu.co. Retrieved     on November 21, 2024, from https://repository.javeriana.edu.co/bitstream/handle/10554/63237/attachment_4_IEEE_Tesis.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
  3. Luyckx, V. A., Tonelli, M., & Stanifer, J. W. (2018). The     Global Burden of Kidney Disease and the Sustainable Development Goals. Bulletin     of the World Health Organization, 96(6), p. 414.
  4. Tonelli, M., & Dickinson, J. A. (2020). Early     Detection of CKD: Implications for Low-Income, Middle-Income, and     High-Income Countries. Journal of the American Society of     Nephrology, 31(9), pp. 1931–1940.
  5. Rico-Fontalvo, J., Yama-Mosquera, E., Robayo-García, A.,     Aroca-Martínez, G., Arango-Álvarez, J. J., Barros-Camargo, L.,     Raad-Sarabia, M., & Acuna-Merchán, L. (2022). The Situation of     Chronic Kidney Disease in Colombia. Nefrología     Latinoamericana, 19(2). https://doi.org/10.24875/nefro.22000030

Problem

The median prevalence of CKD in LatinAmerica is higher than the global average (10.5% vs. 9.5%).

CKD ranks among the top 10 causes of deathworldwide. In 2017, CKD-related deaths reached 1.2 million, comparable to roadtraffic fatalities, and are projected to rise to 2.2 million by 2040 [1].

Problem Size

  • 9 out of 10 adults with CKD are unaware of their condition, and medical costs can increase fivefold in advanced stages.
  • 25% of CKD patients with diabetes progress to severe stages within two years, and 660,000 people face total kidney failure.
  • In 2021, 4,518 incident individuals with stage 5 CKD were reported, and aprevalence of 43,327 cases is reported, with the highest frequency of casesconcentrated in Bogotá and the central region. 43% of cases are documented in women and 57% in men. The mortality rate was calculated at 14.55 per-100,000 inhabitants, being the highest in recent years [2].

Solution

Low-cost Screening Models: Prevent CKD progression to the point of requiring renalreplacement therapies by implementing early detection methods.

Patient Classification: Facilitate the classification of patients within care pathwaysto ensure close monitoring, aligning with high-cost account goals [3].

Opportunity Cost

Economic and Social Burden: CKD accounts for 5.8% of deaths and 3.5% of disability-adjusted life years [4].

High-income countries allocate over 2-3%  of their annual healthcare budgets to treat end-stage renal disease [5].

 


Impact

-            Early interventions reduce advanced CKD cases,lowering costs and improving patient outcomes.

-           AI tools for CKD riskassessment can streamline early detection, helping redistribute healthcareresources efficiently.


Data Sources

 The model's synthetic datasetincludes health variables such as blood glucose levels, blood pressurereadings, age, and other key indicators of kidney health. Studies from the USRDS (1) and the NIH NIDDK (3) helped shape the variables used in the model to reflect real-world clinical scenarios, improving its predictive reliability for CKD.


References

  1. Obrador, G. T., Álvarez-Estévez, G., Bellorin-Font, E.,     Bonanno-Hidalgo, C., Clavero, R., Correa-Rotter, R., Dina-Batle, E.,     Morales, L., Orozco, R., Ortiz, F., Rosa-Diez, G., Sánchez-Polo, V., Solá,     L., Vázquez, L. C., Villavicencio, V., & Rico-Fontalvo, J.     (2024). Consensus Document on New Therapies to Delay the     Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease with an Emphasis on iSGLT-2:     Implications for Latin America. Nefrología Latinoamericana, 21(92). https://doi.org/10.24875/nefro.m24000037
  2. Martínez, W. D. A., & Valencia, L. F. (n.d.). Machine     Learning Models for the Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease Progression. Edu.co. Retrieved     on November 21, 2024, from https://repository.javeriana.edu.co/bitstream/handle/10554/63237/attachment_4_IEEE_Tesis.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
  3. Luyckx, V. A., Tonelli, M., & Stanifer, J. W. (2018). The     Global Burden of Kidney Disease and the Sustainable Development Goals. Bulletin     of the World Health Organization, 96(6), p. 414.
  4. Tonelli, M., & Dickinson, J. A. (2020). Early     Detection of CKD: Implications for Low-Income, Middle-Income, and     High-Income Countries. Journal of the American Society of     Nephrology, 31(9), pp. 1931–1940.
  5. Rico-Fontalvo, J., Yama-Mosquera, E., Robayo-García, A.,     Aroca-Martínez, G., Arango-Álvarez, J. J., Barros-Camargo, L.,     Raad-Sarabia, M., & Acuna-Merchán, L. (2022). The Situation of     Chronic Kidney Disease in Colombia. Nefrología     Latinoamericana, 19(2). https://doi.org/10.24875/nefro.22000030

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